Turkey's Housing Market: A Comprehensive Analysis for Q3 2023

As we progress through 2023, Turkey's real estate landscape is exhibiting fascinating trends and shifts, especially in the luxury segment. GB Invest, with its finger on the pulse of the market, provides a comprehensive analysis of these developments for the third quarter. This analysis is crucial for discerning investors and industry professionals looking to navigate the Turkish real estate sector effectively.

Current Pricing Trends and Sales Dynamics:

• Housing Unit Prices: As of September 2023, housing units in Turkey are averaging at a market price of approximately 2.9 million Turkish Lira (TL), which translates to around €99,550. This figure is pivotal in understanding the current market stance.

• Sales Overview: The sales in September (totaling 109,656 units across all provinces) show a decrease of 16% from August and a 9% decline on a year-on-year basis. This downturn follows a surge in activity over the summer, post the presidential election.

• Market Valuation Analysis: Data from Endeksa, a leading market analysis portal, indicates that the annual increase in housing prices in Turkey hit 109% in September. The average sales price per square meter now stands at 23,031 TL. Interestingly, the nationwide average return on investment for residential real estate is now estimated to be around 16 years.

Mortgage Trends and Foreign Investment Insights:

• Mortgage Sales: There's been a notable 50% decrease in mortgage sales. This trend, however, has a limited impact on foreign buyers due to the prohibition of mortgage issuance to non-Turkish nationals.

• Foreign Buyers' Market: Sales to foreign nationals have seen a 4% decrease from the previous month and a significant 44% drop compared to last September. Consequently, the proportion of foreign buyers in the total sales volume has decreased from approximately 5% last year to 2.9% in September 2023.

Segment-wise Analysis and Provincial Highlights:

• Market Segmentation: The current ratio of transactions in new constructions versus secondary market sales is 30% to 70%. It's notable that secondary market sales have also seen a 15% decrease in the first three quarters of 2023.

• Provincial Attraction: Despite these market shifts, certain provinces continue to draw foreign buyers, with Antalya, Istanbul, and Mersin being the top choices.

Market Implications and Future Outlook:

These evolving trends in Turkey's real estate market signal a phase of transition, presenting unique opportunities and challenges for both local and international investors. It's a market that demands nuanced understanding and strategic foresight, especially for those looking to invest in the luxury property segment. As GB Invest, we are committed to providing our clients with the most up-to-date and comprehensive market insights, ensuring informed decision-making in this dynamic real estate landscape.